[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed May 10 17:52:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 101750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101750 
LAZ000-TXZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101750Z - 101945Z

STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION BY 1830Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD
ACROSS NE TX AND JUST ENTERING FAR NW LA. SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND STRONG
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. A CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST TX AND WRN LA HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR
ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE SHV 17Z SOUNDING. AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN LA SHOW STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0
C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SUPERCELLS
MATURE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

..BROYLES.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

31099336 30709469 31079522 31799520 32449421 32799313
32479234 32029214 31539250 

WWWW