[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 9 23:32:29 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 092331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092330 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-100100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NW AR...SRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 318...320...

VALID 092330Z - 100100Z

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF RED RIVER VALLEY
SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF LOW
CENTER THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU.  EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT INTENSE
UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF TORNADOES IN STRONGER
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH BEST PROFILES LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.  EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF STORMS LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO NARROW INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM WEST OF FORT SMITH AR THROUGH THE WEST PLAINS MO
AREA...WHILE STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS TO
SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

..KERR.. 05/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

35139699 35709591 36299478 36669368 36969235 36979112
36699055 36399089 36119198 35819308 35399388 35109442
34229453 33749513 33599579 33739683 34699715 

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