[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 8 22:40:03 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 082238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082238 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-082345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN /CNTRL KS...SE NEB...NW MO...

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307...

VALID 082238Z - 082345Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT.  ADDITIONAL
WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 00Z.

STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS.  INITIAL
IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...BUT EXIT REGION OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMUM IS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND SUPPORTING ONGOING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE INTERSECTION NEAR HILL CITY.  AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING....PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF OMAHA SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS MODERATE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR EXPANDING
STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR PRIMARY THREATS...BUT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 01-02Z WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39340016 39599948 39829844 40619708 41659607 42379527
41789417 40889402 39489552 38729702 38049797 37969890
38100033 38470101 38990107 

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