[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 082210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082210 
TXZ000-082315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082210Z - 082315Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH INITIATED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DEL RIO.  THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION IN ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE CAPE.  MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME...AND SEEMS TO BE NECESSARY FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE RIVER...INTO AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO BY EARLY EVENING.  IF HEATING/UPSLOPE HAS
BEEN PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING DEVELOPMENT...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR
SUPERCELLS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR/JUST
WEST OF THE RIVER.  CELLS COULD APPROACH OR CROSS RIVER...BUT MAY
NOT POSE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

29510117 29610076 29540012 29399931 29339902 29119871
28629844 27949813 27569812 27259804 26549822 26229851 

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