[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081701 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-081900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE TX...SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081701Z - 081900Z

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD
FROM EAST TX ACROSS SCNTRL LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A
CAPPING INVERSION STILL REMAINS IN PLACE EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. THIS INVERSION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH STORMS LIKELY
INITIATING BY 19Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN
DISCRETE. ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

31088558 30298559 29788628 29798868 29859147 29679316
29579417 30019461 30599463 31199379 31459183 31478823
31398630 

WWWW