[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081543 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081543Z - 081745Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS STORMS INTENSIFY...THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL INCREASE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST
TO WEST ACROSS SRN GA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. WARMING SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EVEN
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES IN SRN GA AND NRN FL ARE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

29938246 29858495 30138530 30748533 31228500 31308298
31238149 30228139 

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