[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 7 18:31:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 071830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071830 
TXZ000-072000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071830Z - 072000Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE 19-22Z...AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS IN SW TX...AND NEAR SANDERSON.  INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS
IN THE CIRRUS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 80
F...WHILE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 59-66 F.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE MID LEVELS...PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY BY 19-20Z.

..THOMPSON.. 05/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29750263 30830374 31480334 31560250 31290203 30900143
30200075 29670037 29170039 29030061 29600130 29740203 

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