[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun May 7 18:24:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 071823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071822 
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-071945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 07 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SW NEB/NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071822Z - 071945Z

...WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...

FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS FAR ERN CO/NW
KS...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED VIGOROUS MIXING TO OCCUR.
THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND
500-1000 J/KG. THE REAL LIMITING FACTOR ATTM IS THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT
/PER MCCOOK NEB PROFILER DATA/ WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS
GIVEN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
LATER THIS AFTN WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING...AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CO MOVES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

..TAYLOR.. 05/07/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

38830055 36990148 36980305 38500377 39500356 40170298
40960191 40500037 39490036 

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