[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 061711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061711 
TXZ000-061915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061711Z - 061915Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH
S CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MIGHT BE NEED FOR THIS AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON.

AT MID-DAY A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN TX
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WNWWD TO S OF DEL RIO THEN NWD TO S OF SAN
ANGELO AND EWD TO NEAR KILEEN. N OF THIS BOUNDARY A SYNOPTIC FRONT
EXTENDS FROM ERN TX NEAR LUFKIN WWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO THEN SWWD TO
WEST OF SANDERSON. MUCH OF CNTRL TX HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STABILIZED
BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IS DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. CONTINUED WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING EWD THROUGH
THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 0-2 KM SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST. HOWEVER...A MID LEVEL JET ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31589911 31169781 30239807 29509932 29730107 30970078 

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