[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 061504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061503 
MSZ000-LAZ000-061700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA THROUGH EXTREME SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061503Z - 061700Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH SERN LA AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SRN MS.
THREATS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

THIS MORNING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN LA MOVING EWD. A
RETREATING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN GULF WNWWD THROUGH SERN AND
INTO S CNTRL LA WHERE IT INTERSECT THE EWD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE.
ANVIL CIRRUS IS LIMITING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...BUT A SLOW WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND S OF RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING MCV AND WEAK CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND E OF SQUALL LINE AS WELL
AS IN VICINITY OF NWD RETREATING FRONT. A MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING
THE MCV WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...ESELY FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE VEERING TO SLY AT 20 TO 25 KT AROUND 1 KM MAY
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT 0-1 KM HELICITY FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
FORMATION AND A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE E-W BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..DIAL.. 05/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29218977 29849260 31049253 31109014 30248894 

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