[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 052035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052035 
TXZ000-052230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052035Z - 052230Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING
MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SWRN TX JUST E OF MARFA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
JUST E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY
HELP TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD.

FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS
OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS
WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

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