[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 052035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052034 
TXZ000-052230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTIONS OF SWRN TX THROUGH PART OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052034Z - 052230Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
PORTIONS OF S TX BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HONDO ARE ALSO BEING
MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SWRN TX JUST E OF MARA. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE JUST
E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM
2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKENING CAP MAY HELP TO
SUSTAIN ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD.

FARTHER E...AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS
OF S TX FROM NEAR HONDO NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE CAP IS
WEAKENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
2000 TO 2500 J/KG. IF INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

28869902 29229990 29780140 29830266 30230299 30640285
30840233 30310150 30109923 29279838 

WWWW