[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051736 
TXZ000-NMZ000-051900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM THROUGH PART OF SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051736Z - 051900Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF
SWRN TX BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 18-19Z.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL TX WSWWD INTO
SWRN TX NEAR MIDLAND THEN NWWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO SERN NM.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO
TO NEAR BIG SPRING WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THE 12Z RAOB
FROM MIDLAND SHOWS 8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND SUGGESTS THE
CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE AN AXIS OF 55-60 F DEWPOINTS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO
3000 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH NM. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPSLOPE SELY COMPONENT ACROSS
SERN NM SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SWRN TX AND EXTREME SERN NM. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE
ENHANCED WHERE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

..DIAL.. 05/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

30840000 31250294 32080437 33310540 33770441 32560237
31689972 

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