[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 5 17:35:18 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 051734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051733 
LAZ000-MSZ000-051830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051733Z - 051830Z

SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS
AND SVR HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING FROM AVOYELLES
PARISH SEWD TOWARDS TERREBONNE PARISH. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BDRY AND ALSO ALONG THE GULF BREEZE FRONT OVER
SCENTRAL/SWRN LA. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
OUTFLOW BNDRY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF SRN LA.
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA VWP/S ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
AN MCV OVER NRN LA ALONG WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE OUTFLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT
LOOSELY ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT EXHIBIT BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. SEWD STORM MOTIONS ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BNDRY COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BDRY
OVER SERN LA WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS EAST/NORTH OF LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN.

..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

31179263 31069161 30709095 29978989 29468924 29068959
29189111 29589209 29699332 29909368 30979276 

WWWW