[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue May 23 19:30:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 231927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231925 
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...MUCH OF ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231925Z - 232130Z

ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER
SERN MT AND ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER WCENTRAL ND IN THE NEXT 1-3
HRS. ADDITIONALLY SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT OF WW 380 INTO ERN ND
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. COVERAGE OF SVR MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE...AND AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 998 MB SFC LOW OVER SERN MT /NEAR MILES
CITY/. A MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EXTENDED
FROM LOW CENTER ESEWD ACROSS ECENTRAL MT INTO NRN/ERN ND. AIRMASS
OVER THIS REGION WAS RAPIDLY BECOMING UNCAPPED WITH MUCINH LESS THAN
25 J/KG BASED ON A MODIFIED 18Z GGW SOUNDING. VIS SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL
TROUGH FROM ECENTRAL MT INTO WCENTRAL ND NEAR SFC LOW CENTER. THE
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND INVOF THE SFC LOW CENTER. AS THIS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MUCAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN ND AND NERN MT...IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST /GIVEN
MERIDIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW/...COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 18Z GGW SOUNDING AND DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WIND. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SVR STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
ERN/CENTRAL SD /WW 380/ MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ND IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...GGW...

49020404 48810512 47200572 46660515 46800362 46660104
46250010 46009980 45869738 46809650 49059734 49000010 