[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon May 15 00:14:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 150012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150012 
TXZ000-NMZ000-150145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 150012Z - 150145Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS INCREASING WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. AN ADDITIONAL
TSTM IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF TERRELL COUNTY IN TX. A WEAK TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS IN LINCOLN AND OTERO COUNTIES IN
NM SHOULD BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SSE INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NM. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION.
SUBSTANTIAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SE IN FAR W
TX...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED...BUT CU DEVELOPMENT HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR. A NARROW AXIS OF MID 50 DEW POINTS FROM
FST TO 6R6 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG LIKELY EXISTS /PER MODIFIED 00Z DRT
SOUNDING/. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..GRAMS.. 05/15/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31220300 30170191 29910240 29540332 29780409 30000454
30650490 32070622 33240679 34430587 34240517 32350387 

WWWW