[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 102042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102042 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-102245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102042Z - 102245Z

THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED BY 22Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AIRMASS WAS SLOWLY RECOVERING
OVER WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL WITH MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. A SFC LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SRN IL JUST NW OF PAH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ENEWD AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF SERN MO. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WAS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACHING VORT MAX WITH INCREASING SLY
WINDS NOTED AT BOTH THE PADUCAH AND BOWLING GREEN VWP/S. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WAS INCREASING AS A RESULT...WITH THE BOWLING GREEN VWP
INDICATING AROUND 150 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH.  LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
EXISTED. RECENT TRENDS IN VIS SAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT HEATING WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...INSTABILITY WOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE AND A TORNADO WW MAY BE
NEEDED.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

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