[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat May 6 22:36:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 062235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062235 
TXZ000-070000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...

VALID 062235Z - 070000Z

IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...ENOUGH HEATING OCCURRED NEAR/JUST
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.  THIS HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 50+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. 
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY STABILIZING IN
SUBSIDENT REGIME TO THE SOUTH OF JET...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
INHIBITING OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  STILL...SOME
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STORMS EAST OF JUNCTION...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO JUNCTION...NEAR DRY LINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION.

..KERR.. 05/06/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30769949 31239823 31209780 30759761 30159789 29919847
29839913 30159976 30750008 

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