[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri May 5 22:13:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 052213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052212 
LAZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292...

VALID 052212Z - 052315Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND
LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 23Z /WW 292 EXPIRATION TIME/ BUT A
NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF WW 219 HAS SEEN THE EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION HELP STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND END THE SVR THREAT.
FURTHER WEST...THE AIRMASS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292 WWD INTO
SWRN/WCENTRAL LA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD  CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS SLOWLY MOVING WWD OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 292.
A SVR STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER WCENTRAL LA
SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF WW
292 IN THE NEXT HALF HR. AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE
WWD IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERCUT ALL THE CONVECTION IN THE REGION.
THUS THE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE
NEXT HR OR SO AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY FOR A NEW WW BEYOND
23Z.

..CROSBIE.. 05/05/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

31079245 31189283 31149301 30549293 30109272 29829252
29179185 29189089 29559080 29709121 29899159 

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