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[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211453 
FLZ000-GAZ000-211630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211453Z - 211630Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
WILL EXIST THROUGH 17Z OVER FAR NERN FL.  GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 1448Z...JAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE TSTM OVER COLUMBIA AND BAKER COUNTIES MOVING 260/35-40 KTS. 
THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG /PER
MODIFICATION OF 12Z JAX SOUNDING/ AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WILL TAKE THIS
STORM RELATIVELY CLOSE TO JAX BETWEEN 1530 AND 1600Z...PRIOR TO
MOVING OFF THE COAST.

GIVEN THAT CYCLOGENESIS IS IN PROGRESS OFF THE SC COAST...AND THAT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED WITH TIME...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS OWING TO THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

..MEAD.. 03/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

30318154 29978245 29928286 30508309 30798282 30868153 

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