[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

Tue Mar 21 02:11:49 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 210213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210212 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-210415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0812 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...105...

VALID 210212Z - 210415Z

CONTINUE WW 105 ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND OF TSTMS NOW EVIDENT FROM LGC
AREA SWWD TO ABOUT 80 NM NE MOB.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
PORTIONS SRN GA -- E OF WW 105...NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT.  BOTH WWS
MAY BE CLEARED AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION EXITS COUNTIES
WITHIN...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND OR
TORNADOES.

SHARPLY DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 02Z FROM NEAR AYS NWWD
TO ROUGHLY 25 N ABY...15 SW CSG...MEETING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ABOUT 10
S AUO. BOWS WILL MOVE OVER WARM FRONT...THEN 20-30 NM OF SHALLOW
STABLE AIR THAT MAY BE PENETRABLE BY SEVERE GUSTS...THEN
PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER STABLE LAYER INTO CENTRAL GA.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL THEREFORE DIMINISH WITH NEWD DISTANCE FROM WARM FRONT.

SEVERE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SRN AL
AND SWRN GA W OF WARM FRONT...WHILE INDIVIDUAL EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES
MOVE ENE AT UP TO 50 KT.  MEASURED/CONFIRMED GUSTS TO 74 KT STRUCK
AUO AT 0135Z FROM BOW THAT IS CROSSING GA BORDER.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE
GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGER BOW AND LINE SEGMENT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS BARBOUR/RUSSELL COUNTIES AL...AND PORTIONS
MUSCOGEE/CHATTAHOOCHEE/STEWART/TALBOT/MARION/WEBSTER COUNTIES GA
WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED...MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO HAS BEEN
REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MESOCIRCULATIONS
WITHIN BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL POSE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. 
00Z TLH RAOB AND LATEST VWP FROM SERN AL SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES CONTINUING...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OVER 500 J/KG AND 70-80 KT OF
-6 KM SHEAR AT EOX RADAR SITE. STABLE LAYERS AROUND 700 MB -- PER
TLH RAOB -- LIMIT BUOYANCY BUT CAN BE OVERCOME BY STRONG CONVECTIVE
SCALE FORCING ABOVE LEADING EDGE OF EXISTING LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

31138823 31918744 32358581 32668508 32768468 32718402
32648366 32368312 31948268 31428253 30928269 30738362
30578458 30018508 29658528 29668538 29868531 30048559
30278613 30418678 30338719 30258784 30248823 

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