[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 20 20:11:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 202013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202012 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-202145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LA / CNTRL AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 202012Z - 202145Z

THROUGH 22Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW
AREA...FROM JUST NE OF LCH TO N OF PIB.

AS OF 1955Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD TSTMS
ORIENTED WSW TO ENE FROM SWRN LA THROUGH CNTRL MS INTO NRN AL /N OF
BHM/.  THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR HEZ AND APPROXIMATELY 35 SW JAN.  SYNTHESIS
OF LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH THIS RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THESE
STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR OR JUST TO THE N OF A
STATIONARY/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF LCH TO N
OF PIB.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  IN FACT...18Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THAT
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION MAY WELL HAVE DEEPENED OVER CNTRL MS...LARGELY
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER FARTHER TO THE
E OVER SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL...AIR MASS IS SLOWLY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING NWD.

AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG /REF. 18Z LIX SOUNDING/. 
MOREOVER...LOCAL VADS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND AROUND 60 KTS
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH
FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER AND MOVE
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP E
OF WW 102 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS SWRN AL AND A WW
MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..MEAD.. 03/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31629357 32678876 30878876 29899361 

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