[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 20 18:47:31 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201848 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NEB/MUCH OF KS/WRN IA/FAR NW MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 201848Z - 210015Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS. HOURLY RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVY MESOSCALE
BANDS.

LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HEAVY
SNOW ONGOING FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS TO GLD/MCK/HSI/LNK. THIS AXIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LATEST AREA PROFILER AND VAD WIND DATA
OBSERVE 50-55 KT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. THE ZONE OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT INTO WRN KS/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTN. 

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE AS UPPER LOW
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH/ WHICH WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN ADDITION TO NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 

WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA AND DODGE CITY THIS
MORNING WILL COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. AT 1830Z THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO GREAT BEND.
TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FROM SCNTRL KS
THROUGH IA...WITH RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NW MO. NAM
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
OBSERVED...AND INDICATE SNOW ACROSS NW MO THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE THERMAL
PROFILES...AND SUGGEST MAIN PTYPE WITH BE RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH SNOW OR SLEET.

..TAYLOR.. 03/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

38789709 38120002 37560177 37740364 40210352 41250315
42340166 42749820 42739614 42449519 38979507 