[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 19 23:36:55 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 192336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192336 
TXZ000-200130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/S-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...

VALID 192336Z - 200130Z

LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ON
ITS SRN TAIL END -- IS MOVING ENE ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS CROCKETT/IRION
COUNTIES AS OF 2330Z.  ALTHOUGH SFC OBS ARE SPARSE IN THIS
AREA...ANCHORING SUPERCELL APPEARS TO BE JUST N OF QUASISTATIONARY
SFC FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED ALONG LINE FROM BPT...CLL...JCT...15 S
FST.  SHALLOW AND RELATIVELY STABLE FRONTAL LAYER MAY LIE BENEATH
SUPERCELL...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE PARCELS REACH AT OR NEAR SFC IN
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAINS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL.  STRONG
LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SPOTTERS WITH THIS STORM PER
SJT WARNINGS.

AT 2330Z OTHER TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS NRN
COAHUILA...FROM SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE NNEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND INTO PORTIONS VAL VERDE COUNTY TX.  AIR MASS BETWEEN
THIS ACTIVITY AND WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.  DRT VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS EWD TOWARD SAT
INDICATE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS...WHICH
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONT. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTM
INTERACTING WITH FRONT MAY TIGHTEN LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND PRODUCE
TORNADOES.  LARGER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGHER DCAPE ARE
EVIDENT FARTHER SE ACROSS UVA/HDO/COT AREAS..WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS BEEN STRONGLY HEATED AND MIXED.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INITIAL
ACTIVITY NEAR RIO GRANDE TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AS INDICATED BY
SEVERAL 12Z/18Z MODELS AND 21Z RUC...WITH  DERECHO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.  SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER
EVIDENT...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FARTHER E WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29629850 29219978 29190137 29870144 31570125 31830080
31859865 31109853 

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