[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 140010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140009 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-140145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OH  AND NWRN
PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 140009Z - 140145Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW
88 NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS E OF WW 88. A
WW E OF THE CURRENT WATCH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS
UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN OH SWWD THROUGH
WRN KY...WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR E OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND AN
AXIS OF MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS KY INTO OH. INSTABILITY IS MORE
LIMITED WITH EWD EXTENT INTO PA AND WV...WHERE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS INCLUDING A STRONG SWLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR
SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 03/14/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

36718472 37218600 41368191 41437976 37788214 

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