[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 13 21:31:54 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 132132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132132 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-132300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132132Z - 132300Z

ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA
INTO SOUTHWEST AL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 89 ACROSS MS/AL...INCREASING AREAL TSTM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...WITH 
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENTLY
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS...
CONFIDENCE/LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...LARGELY OWING TO MILDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES VIA SOUTH PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER JET. GIVEN
EXPECTED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

32199003 32448840 32288740 32048706 31798714 30928796
30268952 30359116 31579086 