[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 131836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131836 
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CST MON MAR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS INTO NORTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131836Z - 132030Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL.
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 1830Z. WHILE THESE
TSTMS HAVE REMAINED MODEST THUS FAR...SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND
COOLING ALOFT/LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY INSTABILITY FEED WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE VIGOR WITH TIME. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM
JACKSON MS DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE COOLING/MOISTENING BETWEEN 700-900
MB SINCE 12Z...ALTHOUGH WEAK CINH/WARM LAYER ABOVE 700 MB REMAINS.

WITH INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPMENT OF
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE...STRONG WARM SECTOR VERTICAL /NAMELY SPEED/
SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVOLUTION OF LINE-EMBEDDED LEWPS...ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.

..GUYER.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

36328791 36538642 36408546 35568527 32648875 32519008
32889053 33909009 34818939 35578871 

WWWW