[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 13 15:00:22 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 131502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131502 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-131600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0282
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN AR/THE MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84...

VALID 131502Z - 131600Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT HAS DECREASED ACROSS WW. STRONGEST STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WW 86 OVER WRN TN.

BROKEN LINE OF GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD OUT OF
WW -- INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN AND ADJACENT NWRN MS.  STRONGEST
STORMS STILL WITHIN WW ARE APPROACHING THE MS RIVER W AND NW OF
MEM...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 86 OVER THE
NEXT HOUR.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MINIMAL INSTABILITY
SWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND NWRN MS...AND MORNING JAN RAOB REVEALED A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP JUST BELOW 700 MB.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE SEVERE THREAT
RE-EVOLVES.  THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW WW 84 TO EXPIRE...AND WILL
MONITOR DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS MORNING.

..GOSS.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

36459018 36508952 36138930 33019106 32939246 34719137 

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