[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 13 06:32:52 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 130635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130635 
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130635Z - 130800Z

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP E OF WW/S 77 AND 78 BY 0800Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 0625Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LONG-LIVED TORNADIC
SUPERCELL OVER S-CNTRL MO /DOUGLAS AND OZARK COUNTIES/ MOVING 
250/45 KTS.  EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THIS STORM E OF WW 78 BETWEEN
0730-0800Z.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND LOCAL VWP DATA INDICATE THAT
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
DOWNSTREAM OF PRESENT WW/S WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...50-60
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY...VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2/.

DESPITE SOME TENDENCY FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS
WARM SECTOR...THIS STRONG SHEAR AND RESULTANT STORM-SCALE
NON-HYDROSTATIC VERTICAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THIS INCREASING CAP WITH THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..MEAD.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

36659104 37579095 38059041 38348996 38598905 37698809
36708820 36398911 36358993 36459050 

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