[MCD] {Spam?} SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 131358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131357 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-131900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NW WI...WRN U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 131357Z - 131900Z

A LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIFT NEWD THIS MORNING
FROM SERN MN AND NW WI TOWARDS THE WRN U.P. OF MI. SNOWFALL RATES OF
1 TO 1.5 IN/HR ARE LIKELY WITH LOCAL AREAS UP TO 2 IN/HR IN
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING TO THE NW OF A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN SW WI. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NEWD OVER LK
MI BY 21Z. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH
A STRONG AREA OF 700 TO 650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING SHOWED A DEFORMATION AXIS
AROUND THIS LEVEL WITH NEARLY FULL SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC
LAYER. BOTH 12Z RUC/06Z NAM-WRF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING
THE STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS TOWARD WRN U.P. OF MI AND LK
SUPERIOR. 09Z SREF GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE RUC/NAM-WRF
MODELS IN PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST QPF THIS MORNING FROM THE SERN TWIN
CITIES METRO NEWD INTO WRN U.P. OF MI. THIS HEAVIEST QPF LINES UP
REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BAND SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS...AND WILL
RESULT IN 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE SNOW/SLEET TO
FORM FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR AS THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS LIFT
NORTH.

..GRAMS.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

44089462 44819422 45439309 46409117 46809017 47388868
46538669 46128690 45688874 44269084 43749153 43559237
43599401 

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