[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 13 04:39:35 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 130440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130439 
MIZ000-INZ000-130615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130439Z - 130615Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
PARTS OF NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 0530Z.

LATE THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE IND...MI BORDER
WWD THROUGH NERN IL. ANOTHER WARM FRONT FARTHER S EXTENDS FROM SWRN
IND NWWD THROUGH N CNTRL IL. LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME
ERN IL MOVING INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF LONG TRACK
DAMAGING TORNADOES...BUT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS STORM INITIATED IN SERN KS AROUND 18Z...HAS
PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS AND TRAVELED ALMOST 500 MILES. IT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT AND IF IT SURVIVES...WILL
MOVE THROUGH NWRN IND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND OUT OF WW 77 AFTER
06Z. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SRN MOST WARM FRONT. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS LESS UNSTABLE WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO SRN LOWER MI.
HOWEVER...A STRONG 70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NEWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME...AND THE WARM FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT NWD AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NRN IL LATER TONIGHT.

..DIAL.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

40048705 40228736 40708696 41458683 42258620 42228468
40998509 40198614 