[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 13 01:59:09 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 130200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130200 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-130330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO/CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN
INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...

VALID 130200Z - 130330Z

TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION
WITH STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL IL
NEAR THE SPRINGFIELD/LINCOLN/DECATUR AREAS...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY
NEAR THE CHAMPAIGN VICINITY. FURTHER WEST...A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL MO.

AN ADDITIONAL AND/OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA.

SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEARING SPRINGFIELD IL
COULD BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 AS EARLY AS
03Z...THUS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE
ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. THIS SUPERCELL...WITH A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. THE
00Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
-- 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH -- AND BAROCLINICITY IN PLACE NEAR WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL.

FURTHER WEST...BROKEN STRING OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO
ERUPT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO EXTREME SW MO AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL MO TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...PERHAPS
ENHANCED BY CENTRAL MO WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
POTENTIALLY EVOLVING/INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

40069380 40589139 40758886 40858636 39498617 38818722
38038953 37429106 37289322 37179410 37259490 38409486 

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