[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Mar 13 00:20:05 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 130021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130021 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-130215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO AND NRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...

VALID 130021Z - 130215Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE
FROM E CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NEWD DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHORT TERM
INITIATION FARTHER EAST INTO NRN AR AND SRN MO IS LESS CERTAIN.
HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING FATHER W WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THIS
REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN KS
SWD THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND INTO N CNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS ONLY
WEAKLY CAPPED. TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE FROM JUST E OF OKC INTO SERN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
KS AND OK THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE. THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN OK
INTO MO AND AR RESULTING IN KINEMATIC FIELDS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 03/13/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

35179707 36649633 36909505 36249427 35199572 

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