[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 12 01:47:02 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120148 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK THROUGH W CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120148Z - 120315Z

RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SERN OK AND NERN TX. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE ENVIRONMENT CAN
SUPPORT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...IF THIS
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO INTENSIFY...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM PARTS OF
EXTREME NERN TX...SERN OK INTO W CNTRL AR.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NERN OK THAT EXTENDS WWD AND INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER E CNTRL OK.
THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING FROM
ERN TX INTO SERN OK AND AR. THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG AND N OF THE E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN OK INTO NWRN AR. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN
ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY FARTHER SWD. THE 00Z RAOB
AND RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN
2.5 AND 3 KM. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING FROM NERN TX INTO
SERN OK IS LIKELY SHALLOW AND MAY STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE
INVERSION. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IF
TRENDS SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR IS IMMINENT...A WW
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH 6 KM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT INITIATES WITHIN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

33319452 33319568 35089532 35299473 35509402 34259396 

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