[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Mar 12 01:38:28 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 120139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120139 
NMZ000-AZZ000-120545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 120139Z - 120545Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/GRADUALLY FOCUS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AZ...WITH
SNOW RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2500 FT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS FEATURE DEEP/COLD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN CA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS. IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND PRONOUNCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT VIA STRONG MID LEVEL SW
JET -- 60 KTS AT 700 MB IN TUCSON RAOB -- WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
HEAVY SNOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ...WITH A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW
RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON...WITH 3 IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...FURTHER EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AZ.

..GUYER.. 03/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

35131217 35261138 34820989 34440915 33270848 33110909
33341014 33521079 34021203 34281237 34641246 

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