[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 091634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091634 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST THU MAR 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK/WRN AR AND SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091634Z - 091830Z

SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING BY 18Z OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN MO. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SVR WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN AR AND SERN
MO...AND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK. A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS THUS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS CLEARING.
THIS INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE AXIS IS EXPECTED SLOWLY
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO
-25 DEG C AT 500 MB/ FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO FORM ON EITHER THE SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT OVER FAR
NERN OK/SWRN MO...OR ONE OR MORE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER FAR ERN OK/WRN
AR BY 18Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 63-65 DEG F RANGE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...COLD LOW-MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST SHEAR...AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

33889432 35979315 37149277 37589414 36649501 35739505
34079521 

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