[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Mar 9 01:47:15 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 090147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090146 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-090315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SERN WI.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41...

VALID 090146Z - 090315Z

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE IN
THE NERN PORTION OF WW 41 AND TO THE E. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME. 

SEVERAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN
CNTRL/ERN IA INTO FAR NW IL. THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN AXIS OF
MAXIMUM 850 MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. RUC AND 18Z NAM WRF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THIS AXIS WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN WI/LK MI THIS EVENING AS A
LOW-LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES NEWD FROM NW MO AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z TOP
SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...MUCAPES ARE LOW FROM AROUND 250-500 J/KG
ACROSS NWRN IL FROM 00Z DVN SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...

41659366 42089238 42429052 42888782 41538824 41019012
40619232 