[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Mar 9 01:03:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 090104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090104 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-090200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CST WED MAR 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / PARTS OF WRN INTO NRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...

VALID 090104Z - 090200Z

TORNADO WATCH 39 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 09/02Z.

00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN MO TO THE ENE OF
STJ.  A DRY LINE EXTENDED SSWWD INTO SERN KS TO CENTRAL OK...WHILE A
COLD FRONT TRAILED SWWD TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TO THE OK PANHANDLE.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS OVER NERN PART OF WW 39 /NORTH
CENTRAL MO/ WEAKENING...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG DRY
LINE OVER SERN KS SINCE 23Z HAVE NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE...
WITH ONLY PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED THUS FAR.  PRIND SUGGEST ERN KS/MO
MAY BE LOCATED BENEATH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS MID MO VALLEY AND UPSTREAM TROUGH
APPROACHING SRN PLAINS.  IN ADDITION TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN KS AND MO
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH A WEAK CAP EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDING AT
SGF.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...STRONGEST...THOUGH ISOLATED...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
FOCUSED ALONG THE DRY LINE AND/OR APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SERN IA.

..PETERS.. 03/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37019667 38769453 40119403 40029186 36869323 