[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 21 16:38:51 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211638 
NCZ000-VAZ000-211815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211638Z - 211815Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ERN NC AND FAR SE VA. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN VA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN NC INTO CNTRL SC AND CNTRL GA.
SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVEL0PING ALONG THE TROUGH IN RESPONSE
TO SFC HEATING AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS OVER WRN VA. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NC SHOW ONLY ABOUT
20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING EXISTS BELOW 700 MB.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

34697608 34487734 35327855 36317849 36897695 35947549 

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