[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Jun 21 16:22:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211622 
MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-211745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN...NRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211622Z - 211745Z

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
MAY EXPAND SWD INTO NRN WI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ERN MANITOBA
EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN ND. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING
EWD ACROSS NRN MN AND IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF STORMS ONGOING IN THE
ARROWHEAD. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND
JUST AHEAD OF A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WHICH IS CREATING STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND
MAY EXPAND SWD ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO NRN WI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE IF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN FURTHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 06/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

45739125 45959233 46379259 47619203 48129135 47928999
47428985 45939058 

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