[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Jun 20 17:21:10 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 201721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201721 
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-201845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL..SRN IND...KY...SWRN VA...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201721Z - 201845Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE ACROSS KY AND STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD EXPAND WWD THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL
IL INTO NRN KY AND NEWD INTO WRN PA. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NRN
IL. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE MOSTLY UNDIRECTIONAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 700 MB WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 06/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

36748197 36718636 37678863 38848812 38238619 38238383
38128194 

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