[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 191905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191904 
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-192000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CENTRAL/NRN OH...NWRN PA...FAR WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191904Z - 192000Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF WW 510 IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN OH TOWARDS NWRN PA/FAR WRN
NY.  WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED IN TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS
THIS AFTERNOON...ONE OVER SERN LOW MI INTO WRN LAKE ERIE WITH
ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL IND.  EACH OF THESE CLUSTERS IS PERSISTING AND
MOVING ESEWD WITHIN WW 510...WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE.  MLCAPE MAX AROUND 2000 J/KG IS PREVALENT OVER LAKE ERIE
ATTM...WHERE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS IS SHIFTING
ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE IN THE SHAPE OF A SMALL BOW ECHO. OTHER MORE
DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SWRN ONTARIO.  SEVERE
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR WW IS THEREFORE GREATEST ACROSS NRN OH INTO
FAR WRN NY/NWRN PA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT. SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SOUTHEAST OF WW 510
INTO SERN IND/SWRN OH...THOUGH CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW MAY PUSH SEVERE
THREAT INTO MORE OF SRN IND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..EVANS.. 06/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...

38808715 39928438 42368165 42977811 38428508 

WWWW