[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 180201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180200 
KSZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-180330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO THROUGH SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...

VALID 180200Z - 180330Z

LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ERN KS...SWRN IA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN MO. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING E OF WW 505 BY 03Z
AND THIS WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 05Z.
OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW EAST
OF WW 505.

LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN IA THROUGH ERN KS IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND
25 KT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE E OF WW 505 AFTER 03Z. THE 00Z RAOB
DATA FROM TOPEKA INDICATES ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE WITH MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS HAS SERVED AS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WRN MO WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST E
OF WW 505. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER...ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 06/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

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