[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 180038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180038 
TXZ000-180245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...

VALID 180038Z - 180245Z

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN TX ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND
SPREAD SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX...REACHING PARTS OF S CNTRL AND SERN TX
LATER THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WW 503 WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW WW THAT
WILL EXTEND FARTHER SE INTO CNTRL AND SERN TX BEFORE 02Z.

EARLY THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH NWRN TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF STORMS
DEVELOPING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS CLUSTER TO EVENTUALLY
ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ONCE THIS OCCURS...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OF
25 TO 30 KT VEERING TO WNWLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE LEADING GUST FRONT AND SUPPORT A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT THE MCS CONTINUING SEWD
OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TX IS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. SELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY OF 20 TO 30 KT AT 500 MB WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
WITHIN THE EVOLVING MCS.

..DIAL.. 06/18/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29639706 30249940 32240132 32689885 33469714 31999595
30759518 

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