[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 172027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172027 
MOZ000-KSZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172027Z - 172200Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN/NERN KS AND NWRN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM CNTRL KS/NEB BORDER TO SCNTRL KS.
MEANWHILE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPORT
PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE LIFT. AIR MASS ACROSS ERN KS/NWRN MO HAS
HEATED THROUGH THE LOWER 80S F. INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY WEAK/LIMITED...FORCING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE LOW MAY INDUCE MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED
BY LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE FROM NAM-ETA AND NAM-WRF.

BAND OF DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT ON THE SERN FLANK OF UPPER
LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
PERSISTENCE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
POSSIBLY EVOLVING FROM INITIAL ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF STORMS INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS DEPICTED IN LATEST GUIDANCE. A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

38429813 39469821 39859721 39879509 39339445 38349523
37629628 37319687 37289741 37309825 37569852 

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