[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 171911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171911 
OKZ000-172015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171911Z - 172015Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON FROM SWRN OK NWD/EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN OK.
A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

STORMS WERE INCREASING NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION IN SWRN OK.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM THIS AREA NEWD ALONG
CONFLUENCE AXIS/WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...FROM SWRN OK NEWD
TO THE KS BORDER. POST MCS AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF OK WAS
VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO OVERCOME
INHIBITION. WHILE MID LEVEL WLY FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WAS CONTRIBUTING
TO MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...LOWER LFC/HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER RH JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
UPDRAFT INFLOW LAYER WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.

..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

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