[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 17 17:59:24 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 171755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171755 
OKZ000-TXZ000-171900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171755Z - 171900Z

SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX AND SWRN
OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF THESE AREAS.

RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY WAS UNDERWAY IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT OK/TX MCS ACTIVITY. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE REGION WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA
INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. CU FIELD HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WAS DEEPENING NEAR
WEAK FRONT AND OK MCS OUTFLOW INTERSECTION NEAR LTS. FARTHER
SOUTH...CU FIELD WAS INCREASING NEAR THE WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NE OF
MAF TO NW OF SPS.

GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA...TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION AND ALONG THE WEAK FRONT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 20-30KT ATOP
GENERALLY WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. MAGNITUDE OF
CAPE/LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND
FRONT COULD SUSTAIN A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS TRACKING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS OK
WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS RESULTING IN STRONGER SRH. IF HIGHER
CAPE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES ACROSS NWRN TX THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT
STRETCHING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

34539751 32220007 32090099 32560167 33940085 35569957
35399834 

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