[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jun 17 16:56:23 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 171654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171654 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-171830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...MI U.P.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171654Z - 171830Z

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WAS INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MN...NRN WI...AND PARTS OF THE U.P. OF MI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED BY
A WATCH SHORTLY.

WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION WAS PROMPTING
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM EAST-CNTRL MN ACROSS NRN WI AT NOON. CONTINUED
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ON THE SRN/SERN EDGE OF DEEP-LAYERED CLOUD
BAND ACROSS MN...AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS WI...SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION LIES
BENEATH STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN CNTRL PLAINS UPPER LOW AND LESS AMPLIFIED NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ND. APPROACH OF THESE
DISTURBANCE WILL AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. PRESENCE OF
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
COULD ALSO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND
ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IF CELLS CAN TRACK PREFERENTIALLY
NEAR/ALONG THESE FEATURES.

..CARBIN.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

47099060 47428812 47388770 46608618 45668774 45168886
44769030 44529110 44329222 44449310 44779370 45339361
46699258 46859180 

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