[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 170735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170734 
TXZ000-170930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF
CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...

VALID 170734Z - 170930Z

SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 498.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TX/IN AND TO THE SW OF WW 498.  SELY LOW-LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN MOIST /LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ AND
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE /AROUND 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ AIRMASS.

THOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS NWD INTO NW TX OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...RESULTING IN AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE WIND FIELD
WITH TIME.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING
THROUGH SUNRISE.

..GOSS.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

31829958 32149839 32069745 30279808 29710031 

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