[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 170424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170423 
OKZ000-TXZ000-170600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495...

VALID 170423Z - 170600Z

THROUGH 06Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST FROM GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-40 AND W OF I-44.  AN
ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME E OF WW 495.

SRN PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR MCS IN PROGRESS OVER CNTRL KS INTO
N-CNTRL OK REMAINS MORE CELLULAR ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO SWRN OK AS OF
04Z.  VWP FROM FREDRICK AFB INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA AS BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
/I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2/. 
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OWING TO COOLING
BOUNDARY-LAYER.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS
STRENGTHENING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...THOUGH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.

THUS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.  AS MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SWRN OK APPROACHES THE CNTRL PART
OF THE STATE ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 06/17/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

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